[allthethings]

Champions League
Soccer - Fenerbahce/PSV Eindhoven - total Over 2½ (+126)
for the regulation time held on Nov 7 at 2:45pm [pending]

I have a number of reasons for playing this one:

1. It represents the highest odds on offer for a O 2.5 in today's games. Everyone expects this to go under.

2. The two teams have many missing players...Fenerbahce missing its top striker, both teams missing crucial defenders. But the replacements should be highly motivated, and I think people overestimate what missing players does to a team.

3. Both teams are under pressure, but especially PSV. They are in third in their group, while Fenerbahce is the surprise team, having won once at home and drawn twice on the road. PSV has an interim coach (usually a good indicator since players fight to secure a place) who has announced his intention to use four forwards in this game and go for the needed 3 points. Now, what I'm reading is that two of these forwards are essentially attacking midfielders, but whatever...they're not going to use a defensive game plan.

4. The previous match between the two ended 0-0. People are overreacting to the previous result.

5. Fenerbahce is the type of team that needs space to operate on offense. The other team attacking plays right into their hands...assuming their various replacements can make PSV pay.

I really believe that with PSV in attack mode, there will be space for Fener to create, and that whichever team finds itself behind in the game will fight hard to draw even, and these things have a way of getting out of control. It's probably a risky bet, but to my eyes a 2-1 final has a good chance.