Looking into the prospect of backing Sussex to regain their title. Not had a great start with 1 win & 2 defeats, particularly as the 2 defeats didnt make the 4th day in either game.
There are games on at the moment obviously but its Sussex's week off & they are playing Cardiff UCE at the moment. As its in progress the traddys have taken the market down but before play started
Stan James quoted 9's &
Bet365 10's.
Betfair are currently trading @ 10.0 & I've had a few bob on that, but I do mean a few bob, just to dip my toe in as it were
My theory goes along these lines: yes, Sussex have lost 2 games & have been hammered in both & indeed scores of 151, 206, 102 & 160 do tell a sorry tale, & the whole key to my thinking is that the batting has to improve (obviously :wasntme ) but both games were away from home. Sussex at Hove, Horsham & Arundel are a different kettle of fish entirely.
In the 1 home game this year theyve hammered Kent by 8 wickets & rattled up 510 in the process, & Mushtaq took 10 wickets in the process. Theyve also been unbeaten at home for at least 2 seasons (I didnt look further back than that) where both campaigns have produced home records of won 4, drawn 4. They lost twice last year, to Lancs & Warwicks away, & both will be challengers this season.....indeed Warwicks are looking strong & have already beaten Sussex this season, but obviously there is a right to reply. I suppose its asking a lot to lose no more games from 13 but I think the key is to turn more of the draws into results.
My main points are this: the next 2 games are Surrey at home & Worcs away. Both sides have started dreadfully & all 5 games between them have been lost. On top of that both sides have started atrociously in this round of games as well...Worcs more so but Surrey are also sweating. So my theory is that if Sussex improve as I expect the price could be very different after these 2 games. Sussex also play Worcs last in the season which could be helpful.
Mushtaq is obviously the main man. Hes done superbly for Sussex over the years & doesnt actually have a home ground bias wickets wise, but here is my clincher. Being a cricket groundsman myself I dont take too much notice of long range forecasts, only short range, but its generally accepted that its going to be a decent summer. Now this is difficult to predict & although its pissing down outside, until a few days ago there hadnt been rain in 5-6 weeks.....although granted we had floods before that
Now last year down in Sussex they not only had hosepipe bans but they nearly reached level 2 of the drought chart, which effectively means no non-essential watering, & I looked quite deeply into the problem as it was decreed that watering the square at Hove was deemed 'non-essential'. This I believe means that it could only be watered for 4 hours a week. I was looking into the advantage that this might make to Mushtaq & turning some of the Hove draws into wins. I went no further as the odds werent good enough as Sussex were either 1st or 2nd at the time anyway, but now........the odds are good enough.
Sussexs 2nd overseas player is Rana Naved who has been dropped from the Pakistan ODI squad so should be available all summer, but the whole key in my eyes is that Sussex have signed Saqlain Mushtaq, originally as cover for Mushtaq Ahmed, on a UK passport. He was in a bad crash a few years back but hes still only 30 & if he can reclaim some of his form by the time '2 spinners' weather comes around, it could be a masterstroke