Here's my stats. Unlike the above journalist, I somehow don't think the colour of the horse is something worth analysing
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There are many statistics attatched to the Grand National which are churned out year after year. But which ones are actually useful? If there is logic behind a statistic, then the chances are that it will help pinpoint the likely winner. However, without a logical explanation, a statistic could well be just coincidental. This is my reasoning....
Weight Band & Class Band
These two stats go hand in hand, and are usually the first to mind when analysing this race. Regarding the Weight Band, during the last 21 years, all winners carried between 10-0 & 11-1. This can be quite easily explained logically. This is like no other race, and the effort demanded of the runners is more than your average long distance chase. The early pace is ferocious, the field size is huge, the fences are bigger and the course is a huge 2m2f oval with long, energy-sapping straights. There are no undulations or tight turns to break up the pace, so horses rarely get a chance for a breather. The faster the pace is, the more weight tells. Horses carrying above 11st simply don't have enough energy left at the end of the race to mount a winning challenge.
Also, you have to remember that these horses are being asked to jump higher, and drop further, than in an ordinary race. No wonder big-weight carriers don't win the National. Those racing from out of the handicap have not got the class to win this event, unless the ground becomes bottomless, which is extremely unlikely this year.
The Class Band stats tell us that all winners in the last 14 years were Officially Rated between 136 & 155, and every year we are told to concentrate on horses within this group. Personally, I just can't see the logic in this. If there was no ceiling on the weight band, and we were told to concentrate on horses rated 139 and above, then fair enough, logic tells us that horses rated lower than this simply do not have the class to win this race. But how can a horse have too much class for a race? A horse is either up to the task, or not. The reason there appears to be a ceiling on this band is because of the way it is tied-in with the weight band - the higher the horses rating, the higher the weight, and once above 11st, the weight prevents them from winning. So ignore the Class Band and concentrate on the Weight Band.
Jumping Ability
Obviously you need a competent jumper to win the National, but are the fences as severe as they are made out to be? My opinion is that the fences at Park courses such as Haydock and Kempton are just as difficult ( or even more difficult ) as the Aintree obstacles. The Aintree fences have loose birch on top and allow horses to brush through the top of them without falling. The fences at Haydock, for example, are far stiffer in structure and if a horse hits the top, it's odds-on it'll capsize. Of course I'm not suggesting that the National fences are easier to jump than your average fence at other courses, the sheer size of them cause many horses problems, and the fact that several fences have their landing side lower than the take-off side, regularly catches inexperienced chasers out.
The first few fences usually have more casualties than any other fences, this is not because they are more difficult to jump, but because the field is at it's biggest in the early stages. The less room to manoeuvre a horse has, the harder it finds it to approach the fence properly - if it's stride is wrong it has no room to put itself right. Also the horses view will often be restricted, and seeing the fence late can be disasterous, not forgetting that if a rival horse falls in front of it, then the chances of having room to sidestep it are slim. The pace is furious in these early stages and there is no room for error. A lot depends on luck, no matter how efficient a jumper a horse is. I recall backing Docklands Express in the early 90's simply because he had never fallen, and he fell at the first.
Party Politics, a giant of a horse who almost stepped over these fences, won the race in 1992, finished 2nd in 1995, yet fell at the third in 1996.
The first six fences make up just 20% of the 30 fences, yet in 2004 14 of the 22 fallers (64%) came to grief by the 6th fence, and in 2002 56% of the fallers suffered the same fate. In 2000 43% of the 21 fallers came to grief over one of the first 6 fences. In 1999, 33% of the fallers fell before the 7th fence. In 1998 an amazing 65% of the fallers ( 11 of the 17 ) failed to get past the 6th fence. In 1994 8 of the 21 fallers ( 38% ) were out of the race by the 6th fence. So being able to jump at speed in a big field is vital, and
every single one of the 14 winners since 1991 had either won or placed in a chase with at least 14 runners. This is a vital stat and is completely logical.
Fitness
Some horses are attempting to win the race after a lengthy break since their last outing - but this is a stat that is very much against them. We have to ask why this is. There are many horses which are actually best when fresh, so why do they not win the National? My view is that if a trainer has a horse he is aiming at the National, then even if the horse needs a rest between races, he would give it at least one or two outings during the season to keep the horse ticking over. An outing even as late as early March would give the horse plenty of time to recover. So any horse that arrives at the National without a recent run has almost certainly had problems, which is bad news as to win the National a horse must be at his physical peak. Also horses that are best fresh are often fragile creatures, which are unsuited to this tough event. All winners since at least 1988 had had their previous outing between 16 and 49 days before this race, which seems a logical stat.
Previous Winners
Not since Red Rum has a Grand National winner won the race again, even though plenty have tried. Why is this? Many races throughout the year are won by a horse that won the race the previous season, so why not this one. After all, the horse is proven over the fences, stays the trip, acts in a big field, likes the course, and can win in the Spring. One explanation is the weight, a National winner will be asked to carry a fair amount of extra weight the following year, and this often proves their downfall. My personal opinion of this is that the race is such a test for a horse, to win it takes so much out of a horse, that they are never really the same again. Hedgehunter has a monumental task here with 11-12 to carry.
Trip
All winners bar one since 1988 had won a chase over at least 3m 1f - the only one that hadn't was MONTYS PASS, who had won an A class 3m hcap at Listowel. The misconception that a 2m 4f horse can outspeed the plodders causes many horses to be entered each year which have no chance of staying the trip. Before the fences were modified, the pace was slower as the jockeys were more careful over the fences, and this enabled the 2m 4f horses to hunt up the leaders before being unleashed on the run-in and using their pace to win the race. But nowadays the pace finds these horses out year after year.
Age
Between 8 and 12 is the favoured age band. 7yo's lack the experience and 13yo's and older are simply to old to be competitive in this extreme test.
Previous Runs
All but one of the winners since 1991 had won a race worth at least £19,000. The one that hadn't,
Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000.
Experience
Any horse competing here as a novice or in only their second season, is unlikely to win. All winners bar one (BINDAREE) since 1990 were in their 3rd or 4th season chasing.
Time Of Year
All winners since 1988 had won previously in either January, February, March or April.